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Residents of the Big Apple will find out the identity of their next mayor this election day, in a contest that will decide who runs and defends the country's largest city at a time when Donald Trump has vowed to send military troops to the city.

Against that backdrop, New York has witnessed a race for mayor that has matched two very different Democrats against each other. The contest has become an acrimonious showdown, laced with alleged racism and Islamophobia, but it is the ideological divide between the two leading candidates that could have major implications for how the Democratic party fares in next year's congressional races.

The Progressive Challenger

In the progressive corner is Zohran Mamdani, the young democratic socialist whose rapid ascent and grassroots campaign has brought global notice. On the establishment side is the former governor, the former Democratic New York governor now running as an independent – and enjoying the backing of wealthy contributors and corporations.

With days to go, it is Mamdani, the former longshot who defeated his opponent in the party primary who is solidly positioned as the frontrunner. The candidate, who has run on a agenda of economic justice and promised to freeze rent for about two million city residents, has outpaced Cuomo by double-digits across all surveys conducted in the fall, and it is very much the younger man's election to throw away.

The Controversial Campaign

Yet, the former governor, who resigned as governor in 2021 amid accusations of misconduct, has made it clear he will fight to the finish, and not necessarily in an fair manner. He has criticized his opponent's objectives as unachievable, and in the final stretch laughed as a radio host made Islamophobic remarks about Mamdani, who is Muslim. Recently, Cuomo was strongly criticized as bigoted after sharing an artificial intelligence video that featured a series of racist stereotypes and showed Mamdani freeing a convicts.

It's been a rather grubby conclusion to an race that could be critical to the direction that the party, struggling in its response to Trump's power moves, adopts in the coming years.

National Implications

If Mamdani secures a clear victory, the party establishment who have refused to endorse his bid will be forced to reckon with a platform that has resonated with voters' frustration at inequality, inflation and the political elite. It would be difficult for Chuck Schumer and Hakeem Jeffries not to adopt at least a portion of Mamdani's progressive proposals about economic justice, given the newcomer has generated an enthusiasm within the Democratic ranks arguably not witnessed since the Vermont senator ran for president in 2016.

Conversely, should the former governor, who had been expected to win easily in the Democratic primary, achieve a remarkable comeback win, it could reinforce national Democrats' current model of cautious, uninspiring resistance – a tactic that has infuriated grassroots members. A New York rejection of Mamdani's optimistic platform could convince party leaders that the best plan is to remain in the center – even as polls show the current iteration of the party is deeply unpopular nationwide.

Campaign Energy

Voters in New York seem to prefer the progressive agenda. Polls show that his backers are far more enthusiastic about their candidate than his opponent's supporters, something that has been apparent during the race. Mamdani's snappy videos on social media, his hopeful outlook for the city and his willingness to actually venture out and meet people in the metropolis has attracted an army of over fifty thousand volunteers, many of them youth or first-time voters.

Negative Tactics

Yet, the former governor, in his late sixties, isn't giving up. And with the risks against him, the ex-leader has turned to ugly messaging in recent weeks.

After spending months throwing basically everything at Mamdani to see what might stick, Cuomo has narrowed his focus on attacking Mamdani directly. He has labelled his rival, who was born in Uganda to Indian parents, an “extremist”, and popped up on Fox Business for an discussion with Maria Bartiromo, where Cuomo claimed New York “will not survive” his opponent as city leader. It hit bottom last week, when Cuomo laughed along and said “that’s another problem” after a radio host said the candidate would “cheer” another 9/11-style incident.

Political Landscape

This strategy echoes much of what Trump, who has deployed the military reserves to Washington DC and threatened to do the same to New York, has said about Mamdani, and perhaps that shouldn’t come as a surprise. A set of wealthy residents, including some who contributed to the Republican in the last presidential race, have invested heavily into trying to get Cuomo into office, as other influential figures have pressured Curtis Sliwa to withdraw from the race.

Political Histories

For the his team, and his billionaire supporters, are concerned, it should not have reached to this point. When Mamdani, one of 150 New York state assembly members, started his mayoral bid in last year, few had known him, and in truth, few even noticed.

Cuomo, by contrast, eased his way into the race in this year and became the instant favorite. He was the big beast who seemingly held every edge. The quintessential political insider, he had wed a Kennedy and served in a Democratic presidency. He became the state's leader in 2011, 17 years after his parent, the former governor, left office from the identical role.

Mamdani, who was elected to the state legislature in 2020, does not have the comparable background. But his dedication to providing no-cost transit and free childcare – along with the rent control promise – present a brighter outlook of the city's direction than his opponent's dire warnings about “mayhem” and rising criminal activity, and his vow to increase police presence.

Recent Challenges

Still, Mamdani has encountered some challenges in recent days, after footage emerged suggesting him suggesting the NYPD and the Israel Defense Forces were connected.

“We have to make clear that when the boot of the police is on your throat, it’s been influenced by the Israeli military,” the candidate said in the recording, recorded at a Democratic Socialists of America convention in 2023. Mamdani, a longtime critic of the Israeli government who has said the nation is committing genocide in the Palestinian territory, indicated he was criticizing joint training exercises between the NYPD and IDF.

Emotional Response

With the election nearing, the candidate appears to have won empathy and backing, however, for his reaction to Cuomo’s escalating attacks.

The progressive responded to Cuomo’s 9/11 remarks in an heartfelt recording. In it, the candidate recalled how, when he first campaigned for the legislature, a family member advised to him that he did not have to tell people about his religion. It was a realization, Mamdani said, that many Muslim New Yorkers had been told “again and again”: “That security could only be found in the margins of our community. That it is in those hidden spaces alone where Muslims could embrace their true selves, and that if we were to step out from those seclusion, then it is in those shadows that we must leave our faith.”

Addressing the behavior of Cuomo and Sliwa, who has alleged Mamd