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Typically, the National Football League's Head Coach of the Year award follows a simple formula. It often functions as a type of apology. Sorry we got wrong your team in our preseason predictions.

On paper, it's a clear-cut path: the skipper who oversaw the largest resurgence is handed the award. However, it fuels an yearly argument about preseason outlooks and whether we're truly rewarding excellent leadership or merely the biggest surprise.

However the latest competition is profoundly different. The pool of contenders is exceptionally strong. It has been the season of comebacks. The league has been chaotic, with recent division champions fading and recent underperformers improving in unison. In an ordinary season, Sean Payton guiding the his team to the summit of the AFC would make him the stone-cold favorite. Yet in this turbulent and entertaining season, he's up against five other exceptional coaches.

This is how the projected vote ought to shake out.

5) The Chicago Bears Coach, Chicago Bears, 11-5

Voters for Coach of the Year selectors are fascinated by signal-callers. This is a tradition. Sean McVay in 2017. Kevin Stefanski in 2020. A third in 2022. Should you transform a quarterback, you're halfway to winning the award.

The Bears' head coach didn't merely corrected Caleb Williams; he's unleashed him. Given a proper system, the QB has been afforded the opportunity to display his special ability. Since Week 9, the Chicago offense rank number four in offensive Expected Points Added per play. This isn't a hot streak – it's prolonged dominance. Under Johnson, the quarterback has become increasingly decisive, less careless, and has willingly surrendered to the gameplan rather than freelancing. It is an offense designed solely in the coach's vision: a physical run game, a steady helping of play-action and a creative passing attack that frees wide-open targets everywhere. Williams has thrived. And when clear throws haven't been there, he's been able to conjure big plays from broken plays.

Johnson came to the Bears with a specific offensive vision. Virtually every gamble – overhauling the trenches, highlighting the tight ends, transforming the QB into a timing-based passer – has paid off. That's rare for a first-year skipper. And it's even more uncommon yet for a leader who walked into the organization with the kind of pressure he did. For two straight offseasons, he was the hottest candidate on the head coaching market. However when it comes to hiring a head coach, there are zero sure things. Somehow, Johnson has lived up to expectations – and even surpassed them. He's proven not just to be a offensive dork but the kind of culture builder that can breathe fresh energy into an franchise.

During a normal year, he would be the runaway choice. Yet the current is not a normal season!

Where Johnson's candidacy comes slightly unstuck is on the defensive side. The Chicago defense currently sit 25th in defensive efficiency. They are living on takeaways, and takeaways are famously fickle. Defensive minds can stress creating turnovers, but nobody can guarantee it. He is on the list because the offense is real. He's not higher because variance is doing too much of the defense's heavy lifting. With a couple breaks of the ball, the Bears would be several wins behind. It's been an exceptional transformation, and the foundation is established for sustained success. But Johnson comes up short here.

4) Liam Coen, His Team, 12-4

The Jaguars' coach is in a similar position to Johnson. He's another rookie leader who has engineered a rapid turnaround. Over the crucial final weeks of the year, he has Trevor Lawrence playing the finest overall ball of his career. And he's also spearheaded the overhaul of a defensive unit that now ranks number five in the league in EPA per play.

What's more impressively, Coen has mastered the leadership stuff, which was not a guarantee after his early press conference appearances and some of his preseason moves.

Coen took over Jacksonville with an uncommonly inexperienced staff. Unlike other coaches, who packed their staff with the perfect coaching mix of youth and experience, Coen hired newbies. Starting with the head coach himself to assistants to position coaches, the Jags are stocked with first-timers. That kind of approach is intriguing in theory, but often collapses in reality – as past failures are a cautionary tale – because everyone is learning a new job on the fly. Yet he has managed to bring everyone and all elements into sync.

After an initial strong beginning, there was a chance that the season would veer off the track. A mid-year collapse caused the team stumbling once more. That's typically when leaders overcorrect. Coen did not. Instead, he simplified the approach. Jacksonville stopped pursuing home-run answers and started seeking reliable ones. Coen recentered the attack around his playmakers and the running game, and asked his QB to use his mobility more.

The outcomes are evident. The Jaguars have won multiple games consecutively and will be the conference's number three playoff seed. Coen gets the slightest knock in the standings because he inherited a skilled roster, but he has demonstrated he can get the most out of that talent.

3) Mike Macdonald, Seattle Seahawks, Their Record

Every Coach of the Year case has a hinge decision. For Mike Macdonald, it was his quarterback decision.

Parting ways from a incumbent, signing a different signal-caller and partnering him with an innovative offensive coordinator could have derailed the campaign in the early weeks. Instead, it defined it. Through the mid point of the year, the new QB was an MVP contender. He has regressed since that hot streak, slipping to 23rd in EPA per pass attempt over the latter part of the season, putting him only one spot ahead of other QBs.

Still