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Amid the widespread uncertainty regarding the American military actions on Venezuela, the seizure of leader Nicolás Maduro, and statements from Trump that the US will “control” the country and “reclaim the petroleum resources”, there is no doubt – they set a truly chilling precedent.

A Grim History and a New Escalation

The United States possesses a dark record of meddling, military incursions, and control in Latin America, but the recent overnight operation marked its premier large-scale offensive on South American land. “US supremacy in this hemisphere shall not be challenged from now on,” Mr Trump declared.

The decision to unilaterally attack another sovereign country and capture its head of state – mere days after he openly looked for a diplomatic solution – carries even broader implications. This ought to concern everyone.

Profound Uncertainty for Venezuela

Venezuelans have lived through a dictatorship marked by theft and failure under Mr Maduro, largely considered to have fraudulently won the most recent election. They now face profound uncertainty at best. Mr Trump has suggested that Mr Maduro’s deputy, Delcy Rodríguez would follow US instructions, and dismissed conservative dissident leader and Nobel prize-winner María Corina Machado as a plausible replacement.

However, Ms Rodríguez, now the acting leader, has so far sounded notes of defiance – and other parts of the decapitated regime are far more intransigent.

A Shift in Global Role

A man who was elected vowing to end foreign wars now says he is “unconcerned about deploying troops”. Renaming the Department of Defense as the Department of War was more than posturing. He no longer views the world’s superpower as a international peacekeeper; he is turning it into a renegade nation.

He holds the view that the America's power permits it to do as it wishes with scant penalty: witness the military actions against Nigeria and Iranian installations. He claims that control of Venezuela's petroleum means this new undertaking “won’t cost us a penny”.

An Attack Without Legal Justification

George W. Bush invaded Iraq on a lie. But this action without legal basis came without UN resolutions of any kind or congressional approval; the opposition party was kept in the dark and say they were given false information in briefings. Mr Trump is not trying to twist international norms, but to destroy them.

Set aside the message this sends to leaders in Moscow, Beijing, and beyond, and consider the destination for America itself. While the raid allegedly resulted in the deaths of 40 Venezuelans, including civilians, there were no American fatalities. Mr Trump’s growing sense of invincibility will surely embolden more reckless actions.

The Thin Pretext and True Motives

No one buys the excuse that this is concerning narcotics. Venezuela is only a minor conduit for cocaine; Mr Trump recently granted clemency to the ex-leader of Honduras Juan Orlando Hernández for related criminal convictions. Mr Trump himself has stated plainly that he is motivated by the lure of oil as well as machismo, the worldview of key officials, and the quest for a legacy as domestic popularity wanes.

A Muted Global Reaction and Institutional Irrelevance

The global reaction, especially in Europe, has – with notable outliers – been alarmingly quiet. That’s not due to Mr Maduro’s sins, but fear of Mr Trump’s wrath. The forceful statement from UN Secretary General António Guterres was notable, but this episode highlights the institution’s growing irrelevance.

Mr Trump’s anti-interventionist domestic base could still pressure him to turn attention back home – but soaring healthcare premiums, public anxiety over the economy and ongoing controversies increase his appetite for distraction.

It has been less than 12 months into his time in office. Other governments may regret it if they fail to speak up today, given what – and who – could be next.