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Well. On one hand, the nation's protracted campaign to host the Cop31 next year has concluded unsuccessfully.

The effort ran for over 36 months for the privilege to put on the world's biggest environmental conference and green trade fair, which would have attracted many thousands of delegates to the city of Adelaide next November.

This won't occur. Rather, the conference known as Cop31 is headed to the resort city of Antalya, on the Mediterranean coast of Turkey.

Letdown and Mixed Messages

This outcome will be a major let down to numerous individuals who had hoped hosting the climate carnival could help accelerate Australia's transition from being a fossil fuel economy to a renewable energy superpower, and bring international focus to the survival crisis facing Pacific island nations, who would have been joint hosts.

The procedure that resulted in defeat has been an unclear situation. In recent days, there have been doubts that the prime minister and other senior figures truly desired the bid to be approved. The prime minister's language were ambiguous at best. It translated to stories in the Australian and international media saying the administration was withdrawing.

This contrasted with the communication being conveyed at the Cop30 talks in the city of Belem, where the environment minister, Chris Bowen, had just declared the country was "fully committed to success".

Uncertain support is not a new issue for Australia's Cop31 bid. Although Bowen championed it, other high-level figures of the administration have only occasionally appeared to be interested.

The Department of Foreign Affairs and Trade, usually in charge for international climate negotiations, has been uninvolved and at times outright opposed.

Evidence suggests the prime minister has considered UN climate conferences a important focus. He hasn't attended one since becoming prime minister in 2022. It's uncertain, but many may question if additional efforts were possible to get the bid over the line.

A Different Perspective

That's one interpretation. But there is another way to look at it.

In the context the climate discussions this week in Brazil – and from an international perspective – the announcement on this week may, ironically, have been the best result possible.

The minister outlined on that day an unprecedented deal that he was working on with his Turkish counterpart, the Turkish minister. The Turkish government would be the Cop president, host and primary coordinator, and the Australian delegation – Bowen himself – would assume a role as "chief negotiator", wrangling almost all nations on the matters that the countries actually attend for – the discussions on how to collectively address the environmental emergency.

Additionally, there would be a greater focus on the Pacific, including a preliminary meeting on an Pacific island.

Reasons for Doubt

Multiple reasons exist for scepticism. Turkey and Australia do not have a strong partnership. Specific aspects of the agreement had not been finalized at the time of writing. The entire arrangement could collapse before it gets started.

But it could also be a way to salvage something useful from what appeared to be an approaching car crash for the multilateral work on global warming.

Turkey is widely seen in the international community as having been determined on creating disruption in the UN climate process. The system is supposed to work by consensus. Typically, that means if there are multiple countries in the race those with less support either bow out voluntarily, or a deal is quietly done to persuade them to exit the race.

Turkey clearly had weaker endorsement than Australia and Pacific islands to organize the summit. At least 24 of the 28 nations responsible for nominating next year's host had backed the southern pitch.

But, exceptionally, Ankara declined to withdraw. The word "bastardry" has been used frequently in recent days, and not only by Australians.

International Dynamics

Turkey's obstinacy can be interpreted as a reflection of the fracturing geopolitical climate. With the US absent under the former president, there has been no dominant nation with the heft to stare down the oil producers that offered the Turks with some cover.

President Erdoğan is seen as aligned with Vladimir Putin. Some countries worried about a conference hindered from the top if his government managed the discussions. Germany did not want to have to organize an unprepared Cop31 at the UN climate headquarters in Bonn, which is what would have happened under UN rules if the stalemate wasn't broken.

An Innovative Approach

A resolution was needed. International frameworks is imperfect and often disconcerting to observe, but global cooperation has empirically made a difference in the battle with global heating. The Turkey-Australia arrangement is a creative idea that keeps that going when it is needed more than ever.

Notwithstanding reasonable concerns of the Australian government over its contradictory stance for expanding carbon-based exports, climate activists who participate in international meetings see the minister as a positive influence in the negotiations. He has been asked to co-chair negotiation streams at multiple summits he has attended.

This matters. While some have dismissed the role of a "president of negotiations", specialists from research centers and experienced analysts at climate talks assert it is crucial to their success.

"Every successful Cop has been shaped by a leader directing proceedings who can understand, forge agreement and achieve an ambitious outcome. We saw that in Berlin in 1995, in Cancún in 2010 and the French capital in 2015. We saw the opposite in Copenhagen in 2009," they note. "This position is critical at the conference except for making sure that people have food."

Unanswered Questions

There are plenty of unanswered questions. As an illustration, non-governmental organizations plays a vital role at environmental summits. What, if at all, can the Australian government do to prevent a restriction on NGO participation by the Turkish leadership?

Perhaps not much. However, this doesn't prevent this deal appearing as the best chance available to have a conference that may offer something for the Pacific region, Australia and the global community. This attempt is justified.