Keir Starmer's Supporters Initiate 'Block Andy Burnham' Drive to Block Mayor's Commons Comeback

Key supporters of Prime Minister Keir Starmer have reportedly set in motion a coordinated campaign to prevent Andy Burnham, the Labour Mayor of Greater Manchester, from making a comeback to the House of Commons. This action comes after the resignation of a Manchester MP, which has sparked an upcoming byelection.

Significant Hurdles in the Candidate Selection Process

Several figures on the party's ruling NEC have apparently suggested it would be extremely difficult for Mr. Burnham to navigate the candidate selection procedure. This is primarily due to the sizable presence of Starmer loyalists on the body who are desperate to head off any potential challenge to Starmer's leadership.

The Labour party machine is said to have mobilised following the revelation of the MP's intended resignation, with officials and MPs raising concerns about the substantial expense and political risk of a subsequent mayoral race in Greater Manchester.

The Mayor's Aspirations and Internal Disquiet

Andy Burnham has made no secret of his political ambitions. Previously, he caused anger within No 10 and among senior ministers when he remarked that numerous MPs had urged him to run for the party leadership.

There has long been speculation that he is seeking a seat in the Commons to possibly contest the Labour leadership if a challenge to Sir Keir emerge. Nevertheless, supporters of the Mayor have cautioned against overstating the level of any planning, stating he is deeply committed to his job as mayor and would solely return national politics if he felt he had something to contribute.

"People want to paint him as scheming and plotting but that’s absolutely not where he is. He loves being mayor of Manchester. It would only ever be an option if felt he had something to offer," a source close to Burnham remarked.

Political Landscape and Poll Ratings

Against a backdrop of polls suggesting Sir Keir is unpopular and many MPs pessimistic about Labour's fate at the next election, Andy Burnham stands out as the sole prominent Labour personality with consistently positive ratings with the public.

Should Mr. Burnham decide to run, several obstacles remain. He would need to be approved by the NEC—where the odds are not in his favour—and then win the by-election against competition from Reform UK and independent candidates, all prior to any possible leadership challenge.

The 'Stop Andy' Campaign

Senior Labour sources have said that a "Stop Andy" operation is already in progress, with the party's organisation being tightly controlled by senior aides of the Prime Minister.

The Prime Minister himself said that the byelection process was in its "initial phases" and told his MPs to cease discussion of possible contests for the leadership.

Andy Burnham, commenting before the MP's resignation was confirmed, said to journalists: "People shouldn’t rush to conclusions. I have been very focused on my role as mayor of Greater Manchester."

Financial and Political Dangers

NEC members have allegedly pointed to not only personal opposition towards Mr. Burnham but also the significant expense of a mayoral byelection in Greater Manchester. This could redirect around £500,000 in party funding from other crucial elections across the country.

"It is deeply selfish of Andy to want to run for this – costing us tens of thousands we don’t have and diverting activist resources... It is absurd beyond description and cannot be allowed," an insider claimed.

Several sources also shared fears about Nigel Farage’s party attempting to win the mayoralty created by Mr. Burnham, which would represent a significant political win for them.

Union Influence and Procedural Fears

Being an elected mayor, Mr. Burnham would require the NEC's approval to stand. It is also possible the committee could enforce an women-only shortlist to block his nomination.

However, one Burnham ally warned against presuming the NEC would simply reject him, even though Sir Keir's team is widely thought to dominate it.

The trade unions hold a significant number of seats on the NEC. While the largest unions are for now remaining quiet, insiders suggested they would be uncomfortable with anything perceived as interference from Downing Street.

The leader of the Fire Brigades Union stated: "It would be a democratic outrage if Andy Burnham was blocked... Our union will fiercely resist any attempts to stitch up the selection. It’s vital that there is a full and open democratic procedure."

Electoral Challenges

The seat in question holds a sizable Labour lead. However, Reform is expected to launch a significant campaign, building on support in one part of the constituency. Labour believes it is on firmer ground in the more populous Greater Manchester section, though it could encounter a challenge from independent candidates.

Should Mr. Burnham return to parliament, he would need the backing of 80 Labour MPs to mount a leadership challenge, a hurdle that is far from certain given he is viewed with scepticism by a number of on the backbenches.

The departing MP stated he was stepping down due to deteriorating health, which had made it impossible for him to carry on in his role. He also remains under a parliamentary standards investigation concerning his involvement in an inappropriate online group.