Day-to-Day Homicides in the nation Decline 37% In the Sheinbaum Administration, According to Official Statistics

The typical figure of per-day homicides per month in Mexico has decreased by thirty-seven percent since President Claudia Sheinbaum assumed power, as stated by recent government statistics. However, public safety experts have warned that homicide data might not signal better national safety.

Marked Reduction in Per-Day Numbers

There was an average of nearly 55 killings a day in the month of November compared with almost 87 when Claudia Sheinbaum assumed the presidential office in September of last year. This announcement was delivered by the director of the nation's national safety agency, Marcela Figueroa Franco, during the president’s daily press briefing on Tuesday.

“The result in homicides that have been recorded over these months is extremely important,” Claudia Sheinbaum said, explaining that last month the least figure of homicides were documented for any single November in the past 10 years.

Recent Context and Government Strategy

Violent organized crime internal conflicts, alongside the administration's heavily military campaigns to confront the trafficking organizations, have made Mexico’s murder numbers escalate in the past few years. The figure hit a maximum of 36,773 killings in 2020, as reported by the country’s official data office.

That resulted in Mexico a homicide rate over 4x higher than the US. However, homicides have been on the decrease, falling to 33,550 the previous year. Sheinbaum has linked her public safety approach for an seemingly more pronounced decline in homicides this year.

At a news briefing in the summer, the Mexican leader stated: “We have a strategy, we have oversight of the plan, and there is detailed tracking municipality by municipality in certain cases. The plan is effective. And we have to keep working at it each day.”

The central elements of Sheinbaum’s safety plan involve:

• Bolstering Mexico’s federal guard.
• Advancing information gathering and investigation capabilities.
• Greater coordination between various authorities.

Analyst Warnings and Data Concerns

However, public safety experts urged caution that using homicide statistics to paint a picture of pacification was misleading. This is particularly true given the rise in other criminal activities such as abductions.

“It would be very good information if this were a decrease, but I think we shouldn't just focus on the murder data and say: ‘Well then, excellent,’” said Cecilia Farfán-Méndez, an authority on Mexico's organised crime. “I would be tentatively hopeful.”

According to the public policy research organization Mexico Evalúa, killings in total fell by over 20% in the first 10 months of this year compared with the same period last year. However, disappearances have risen by 15% and in certain regions have risen by as much as 200%.

“Data on murders is not reliable for gauging the context of insecurity,” stated Armando Vargas, a safety expert at Mexico Evalúa. “First, we have law enforcement and prosecutors who lack the resources or the will to properly recognize and categorize bodies. Secondly, organized [criminals] … have the means to conceal violence through disappearances.”

Vargas added that relying on monthly means of everyday killings was additionally problematic because it could mask periods when there were particularly high levels of killings.

“Relying on the daily mean makes spikes of violent crime less visible,” he said.

Arrests and Confiscations as Metrics of Progress

An area where the government can highlight the effectiveness of its safety plan is on arrests and seizures. Close to 40,000 individuals were detained between last October and this past November for high-impact crimes, per official data. Over 20,000 firearms were seized and 311 tonnes of drugs intercepted.

“Trump can't claim President Sheinbaum of not acting, because in reality she is accomplishing a lot with these thousands of detentions, many thousands of confiscations, and all the tactical weakening of organised crime. It’s highly in political terms advantageous,” said Vargas.

Ongoing Unrest and Public Frustration

Yet in spite of these efforts, Mexico remains grappling with extreme bloodshed, with several regions in the throes of cartel-driven bloodshed. In the previous month there was a high-profile murder of a well-liked mayor in the region of Michoacan, one of 10 mayors assassinated in the last 12 months.

Weeks later, thousands of youth protested in the capital and across the nation to show their anger at graft and drug violence.

“The federal government presents [data] in a manner to construct a picture of improvement. Politically it’s extremely effective, socially it’s very problematic,” the analyst remarked.